帮忙找一篇与财务危机预警系统《Early Warning System for Financial Crisis》相关的外文文献？？

1. 帮忙找一篇与财务危机预警系统《Early Warning System for Financial Crisis》相关的外文文献？？

相关文献：
An early warning system for financial crisis using a stock market instability index.
【作 者】Kim,Dong Ha;Lee,Suk Jun;Oh,Kyong Joo;Kim,Tae Yoon【刊 名】Expert Systems【出版日期】2009【卷 号】Vol.26【期 号】No.3【页 码】260-273
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2. 财务危机预警系统的理论依据

中国20世纪80年代初有了经济预警的概念，承认经济的波动性和周期性。企业预警理论主要包括危机管理理论、策略震撼理论、企业逆境管理理论以及企业诊断理论。这就为财务预警理论的发展和成熟提供了理论基础。财务危机预警系统是基于上市公司财务运作的全过程，不断成熟的财务管理学理论则成为其基础；财务危机预警系统的预警分析是对大量原始信息和数据的处理，日益发展完善的信息传递理论和统计学为其提供了理论基础；财务危机预警系统中的危机管理不仅是对危机全过程的监测和控制，而且是对风险的处理，那么现代经济周期理论和风险管理理论则为其提供了依据。证监部门于2001年11月发布《亏损上市公司暂停上市和终止上市实施办法（修订）》，表明中国证券市场退市机制不断健全和完善。证券市场的退市机制是实现上市公司优胜劣汰的重要途径，增强上市公司的风险防范意识，提高上市公司的质量，引导证券市场朝良性方向发展。

3. 财务预警与财务危机预警有什么区别

1、财务危机（Financial crisis）又称财务困境（Financial distress），国内外学术界并没有给出财务危机的统一定义，通常公认有两种确定的方法：一是法律对企业破产的定义，企业破产是用来衡量企业财务危机最常用的标准，也是最准确和最极端的标准；二是以证券交易所对持续亏损、有重大潜在损失或者股价持续低于一定水平的上市公司给予特别处理或退市作为标准。根据中外学者的研究，财务危机至少有以下几种表现形式：第一，从企业的运营情况看，表现为产销严重脱节，企业销售额和销售利润明显下降，多项绩效评价指标严重恶化；第二，从企业的资产结构看，表现为应收账款大幅增长，产品库存迅速上升；第三，从企业的偿债能力看，表现为丧失偿还到期债务的能力，流动资产不足以偿还流动负债，总资产低于总负债；第四，从企业现金流量看，表现为缺乏偿还即将到期债务的现金流，现金总流入小于现金总流出。 

2、所谓企业财务预警，即财务失败预警，是指借助企业提供的财务 报表、经营计划及其他相关会计资料,利用财会、统计、金融、企业管理、市场营销理论,采用比率分析、比较分析、因素分析及多种分析方法,对企业的经营活动、财务活动等进行分析预测,以发现企业在经营管理活动中潜在的经营风险和财务风险,并在危机发生之前向企业经营者发出警告督促企业管理当局采取有效措施,避免潜在的风险演变成损失,起到未雨绸缪的作用；而且,作为企业经营预警系统的重要子系统,也可为企业纠正经营方向、改进经营决策和有效配置资源提供可靠依据。

4. 上市公司财务危机预警系统外文文献及翻译（译文3000汉字+），

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5. 财务预警指标体系

企业集团财务风险的防范就是企业在识别风险、估量风险和分析风险的基础上,充分预见、有效控制风险,用最经济的方法把财务风险可能导致的不利后果减少到最低限度的管理方法。 
企业集团财务风险是指在各项财务活动中,由于各种难以预料或无法控制的因素作用,使企业不能实现预期财务收益,从而产生损失的可能性。简述企业财务风险的表现形式,分析了其形成原因并提出了企业财务风险的防范措施及方法。 
财务风险是客观存在的,要彻底消除风险及其影响是不可能的。为防范企业财务风险,就要了解风险的来源和特性,进行适当的控制和防范,健全风险防范机制,将损失降至最低,为企业创造最大的收益。 
一、 我国企业财务风险的主要表现 
企业财务活动，一般分为筹资活动、投资活动、资金营运和收益分配四个方面，相应地，财务风险就分为：筹资风险，即因借入资金而增加丧失偿债能力的可能；投资风险即由于不确定因素致使投资报酬率达不到预期之目标而发生的风险；资金营运风险即现金流出与现金流入在时间上不一致导致资金链断裂所形成的现金流量风险；收益分配风险即由于收益分配可能给企业今后生产经营活动产生不利影响而带来的风险。 
1、 在筹资方面，企业资金结构不合理的现象普遍存在。我国资本市场尚不够发达，企业筹资手段不够丰富。长期以来企业对资本市场的了解还比较匮乏，对资本市场的运转、资本市场的理论缺乏研究，在筹资时较少考虑资本结构和财务风险等，具有一定的盲目性，资金结构中负债资金比例过高，导致企业财务负担沉重，偿付能力严重不足。与高负债形成的风险相比，或有负债形成的风险更具隐蔽性，对企业的潜在风险也更大。典型表现是企业的乱担保。部分企业对外担保数额大，期限长，甚至未经同意和审批，董事、经理擅自以公司名义为他人担保等，给企业带来较大的风险。大部分企业对担保疏于管理，也不按照制度规范在表外披露，如果担保对象一旦无法偿债，担保企业的或有负债就转化成负债，突如其来的债务负担很可能导致企业资金紧张甚至资不抵债，诱发企业的财务风险。 
2、 在投资方面，部分企业投资决策随意性大。在企业中，不顾自身的能力和发展目标，热衷于铺新摊子，盲目投资，造成严重损失的例子比比皆是。企业在进行任何一项投资之前，都应对投资项目进行可行性分析，只有在综合考虑各项因素的基础上，当投资项目所产生的净现金流量为正时才是可行的。盲目追求外延式扩张及所谓多样化经营，未经深入调查研究便乱上投资项目，走向破产也就不足为怪了。由于投资决策者对投资风险的认识不足，决策失误及盲目投资导致一些企业产生巨额投资损失。 
3、 在资金营运方面，我国企业在流动资金等方面的管理也存在很多问题，一些管理手段还比较落后。目前我国企业流动资产中，存货所占比重相对较大，且很多表现为超储积压存货。存货流动性差，一方面占用了企业大量资金，另一方面企业必须为保管这些存货支付大量的保管费用，导致企业费用上升，利润下降。长期库存存货，企业还要承担市价下跌所产生的存货跌价损失及保管不善造成的损失，由此产生财务风险。 在应收账款管理中，企业普遍存在只注重销售业绩，忽视应收账款的控制状况。一些企业为了增加销量，扩大市场占有率，大量采用赊销方式销售产品，导致企业应收账款大量增加。同时，由于企业在赊销过程中，对客户的信用等级了解不够，盲目赊销，造成应收账款失控，相当比例的应收账款长期无法收回，直至成为坏账。资产长期被债务人无偿占用，严重影响企业资产的流动性及安全性。 
4、 在收益分配上较少考虑资本结构问题。股利分配政策不仅影响与企业相关的各方面的利益，而且与公司的筹资问题和资本结构问题密切相关，涉及到企业的长远发展。在我国，由于企业为了长期稳定地发展，一般较注重积累，而不倾向于导致企业现金流出的现金股利分配方式；较注重企业的经营成果，即利润指标，而对股价关心较少，从而在收益分配上与国际惯例差距较大。与国际上广泛采用的股利政策相比，我国上市公司较少分配现金股利，代之以配股或送红股的分配方法，这在有意无意间助长了证券市场上的投机气氛，无助于投资者形成正确的投资理念。不仅如此，我国企业股利政策的制定也往往无章可循，股利分配方案常常朝令夕改，令投资者无所适从。 
二、 建立财务预警分析指标体系，防范财务风险。 
财务风险是现代企业面对市场竞争的必然产物，尤其是在我国市场经济发育不健全的条件下更是不可避免，产生财务危机的根本原因是财务风险处理不当，因此，防范财务风险，建立和完善财务预警系统尤其必要。 

1、 建立短期财务预警系统，编制现金流量预算。 

由于企业理财的对象是现金及其流动，就短期而言，企业能否维持下去，并不完全取决于是否盈利，而取决于是否有足够现金用于各种支出。预警的前提是企业有利润，对于经营稳定的企业，由于其应收账款、应付账款及存货等一般保持稳定，因此经营活动产生的现金流量净额一般应大于净利润。企业现金流量预算的编制，是财务管理工作中特别重要一环，准确的现金流量预算，可以为企业提供预警信号，使经营者能够及早采取措施。为能准确编制现金流量预算，企业应该将各具体目标加以汇总，并将预期未来收益、现金流量、财务状况及投资计划等，以数量化形式加以表达，建立企业全面预算，预测未来现金收支的状况，以周、月、季、半年及一年为期，建立滚动式现金流量预算。 

2、 确立财务分析指标体系，建立长期财务预警系统。 
对企业而言，在建立短期财务预警系统的同时，还要建立长期财务预警系统。其中获利能力、偿债能力、经济效率、发展潜力指标最具有代表性。反映资产获利能力的有总资产报酬率、成本费用利润率等指标；反映偿债能力的有流动比率和资产负债率等指标；经济效率高低直接体现企业经营管理水平，反映资产运营指标有应收账款周转率以及产销平衡率；反映企业发展潜力的有销售增长率和资本保值增值率。 

三、 结合实际采取适当的风险策略，防范财务风险。 

在建立了风险预警指标体系后，企业对风险信号监测，如出现产品积压，质量下降，应收账款增大，成本上升，要根据其形成原因及过程，指定相应切实可行的风险管理策略，降低危害程度。面临财务风险通常采用回避风险、控制风险、转移风险和分散风险策略。 

1、 回避风险策略为企业在选择理财方案时，应综合评价各种方案可能产生的财务风险，在保证财务管理目标实现的前提下，选择风险较小的方案，以达到回避财务风险的目的。 

2、 控制风险策略按控制目的分为预防性控制和抑制性控制，前者指预先确定可能发生损失，提出相应措施，防止损失的实际发生。后者是对可能发生的损失采取措施，尽量降低损失程度。 

3、 转移风险策略指企业通过某种手段将部分或全部财务风险转移给他人承担的方法。转移风险的方式很多，企业应根据不同的风险采用不同的风险转移方式。例如，企业可以通过购买财产保险的方式将财产损失的风险转移给保险公司承担；订立反担保合同转移担保风险。 

4、 分散风险策略即通过企业之间联营、多种经营及对外投资多元化等方式分散财务风险。 

四、 提升企业财务管理水平，防范财务风险。 

财务风险存在于财务管理工作的各个环节，不同的财务风险产生的具体原因不尽相同。但大部分财务风险的形成与企业财务管理不善及缺乏风险意识等等有关。因此提升企业财务管理水平，才能最终防范并化解财务风险，以实现财务管理目标。防范企业财务风险，主要应抓好以下几项工作： 

1、 改变陈旧观念，从思想上重视财务管理。长期以来，我国企业的财务工作与会计工作也一直未能很好的分开，财务管理从属于会计工作，“财务管理跟着会计核算走，会计核算跟着领导意志走”，财务管理的内容也往往仅限于营运资金管理。在许多学者认为财务管理已取代生产管理成为企业管理核心的今天，这种状况必须改变。激烈的市场竞争和生存压力将迫使企业调整和转变过去陈旧的管理观念。为此，企业应自上而下形成重视财务管理的风尚，重视财务预算、营运资金管理、财务控制等工作，紧紧围绕企业目标，从大局上把握企业经营，提升企业财务管理层次。 

2、 努力建立和保持最优资本结构，合理进行筹资。筹资分为负债筹资和权益筹资，相比较而言，由于权益性资本不能抵税及其不可收回性，权益资本的成本要高于债务资本的成本。面对各种各样的筹资方法，企业应当克服片面强调财务安全、过于依赖权益资本筹资的保守倾向和片面追求低成本、忽视财务风险而过度举债的倾向，调整好经营杠杆系数和财务杠杆系数，综合权衡各种筹资方式的成本与风险，使企业的综合资本成本最低化，达到最优资本结构。判断资本结构合理与否，可以通过每股收益的变化来衡量。每股收益的无差别点即每股收益不受融资方式影响的销售水平，根据每股收益无差别点，可以分析判断在什么样的销售水平下适于采用何种资本结构。 

例如：A公司原有资本700万元，其中债务资本200万元（每年负担利息24万元），普通股资本500万元（发行普通股10万股，每股面值50元），由于扩大业务，需追加筹资300万元，其筹资方式有2，一是全部发行普通股，增发6万股，每股面值50元；二是全部筹措长期债务，债务利率仍是12%，利息36万元。公司变动成本率60%，固定成本为180万元，所得税率为33%。假设S为销售额： 
S=750（万元），此时每股收益无差别点为4.02元。 

当销售额高于750万元时，运用负债筹资可以获得较高的每股收益，反之，销售额低于750万元时，运用权益筹资可以获得较高的每股收益。

6. 求壳资源定价英文文献

Value-driven partnerships for a diverse energy future
02/04/2009
Speech given by Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive of Royal Dutch Shell plc, at the International Oil Summit, Paris, 2 April 2009. This text may differ from the spoken word. 

With long-term energy demand going up, the world will need more diverse energy, even though fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix for decades. To produce hydrocarbons effectively, efficiently and responsibly, value-driven partnerships between national oil companies and international oil companies are key. Against that backdrop, and given our skills and capabilities, Shell’s primary responsibility continues to be to deliver oil and natural gas, with a growing role for natural gas. In addition, we are stepping up our efforts in the area of sustainably sourced biofuels, because they fit our downstream capabilities and could make a substantial contribution to reducing CO2 emissions.

Value-driven partnerships for a diverse energy future 
 

Short-term volatility

These are very tough times for governments and companies alike. The speed and scale of the downturn has taken all of us by surprise. 
The recession could slow down investments by the oil and gas industry in new projects. This would amplify the already cyclical nature of our industry.
And, in addition to the short-term volatility, there is also growing long-term volatility. This volatility is related to the dual challenge of increasing energy supplies and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 
Meeting both challenges at the same time will not be easy, as higher energy use will cause higher CO2 emissions, unless we can find ways to produce more energy and implement more CO2 solutions at the same time. 
So the oil and gas industry faces both short-term volatility and long-term volatility. 
I will discuss both, and then will present some thoughts on what can be done in response. 
I’ll round off by saying something about the contribution Shell intends to make – as a company and as a value-driven partner for National Oil Companies.

Long term volatility: Three Hard Truths 
Today, global oil demand is roughly 3% lower than last year. 
The oil price is back to where we were in 2004, but industry costs have doubled since then. 
At the same time, many producing fields are in decline. And we know that when the economy recovers, so will energy demand.
And when that happens, three hard truths about today’s energy system will become apparent again.
Let me remind you of them.
The first hard truth concerns energy demand. Despite the drop in energy demand in 2008 and 2009, it is still likely that global energy use will double during the first half of this century. 
The current slowdown in energy growth should still be seen in the context of a huge surge from 2004-2007, particularly from emerging economies.
So, the ups and downs of economic volatility and the current crisis may impact the details of this hard truth, but the trend remains in place. 
In meeting the world’s energy needs, there’s no doubt that oil and gas remain the main staples of the world’s energy diet for a long time to come.
So you would expect our industry to be fully committed to investing in projects that will deliver the supplies of the future.
That brings us to the second hard truth. It concerns the supply side. It is that “easy oil and gas” – or conventional oil and gas that are relatively easy to extract - will not be able to grow at the pace with which demand is growing. Many existing fields are maturing, the required investments are huge and access to resources is limited in many countries.
Even if investments were kept up according to pre-recession plans, once energy demand picks up again, it will be difficult for the upstream industry to bring on line new supplies at the pace required.
According to a survey by Barclays’ Capital of over 350 upstream companies, investments will actually fall by 12% in 2009. And this is probably too optimistic.
A supply crunch by mid-next decade seems possible and could be severe. This would result in new price spikes, putting another drag on economic recovery. Then the “boom-to-bust” story could begin all over again.
The logical consequence of lagging conventional supplies is that we need all the energy we can get, from all the possible sources. We at Shell call that “Diverse Energy”. 
However, even if we develop and deploy all the energy we can together – including unconventional oil and natural gas, including alternative energy, including nuclear and including more coal – it will still be a struggle to match demand, unless we learn to use energy in radically more efficient ways.
The third hard truth is that more energy means more CO2 emissions. We are currently on a path to atmospheric CO2 concentrations that scientists consider unsustainable. 

The response 
So what is the place of oil in this increasingly volatile world? And what role does Shell see for itself, as a company and as a partner?
It would be good for international society to continue investing in a diverse energy mix, in cap-and-trade mechanisms that put a price on CO2 , and in CO2 Capture and Storage as a vital technology for taking CO2 out of the fossil fuels chain. 
Given the high costs still associated with CCS and renewables, government support will be necessary to come to a commercial business model. 
What about the place of oil in the world’s increasingly diverse energy mix? 
It very much depends on climate policies.
There is a clear desire internationally to reduce the CO2 -intensity of mobility.
Some governments may feel pressure to attempt a rushed displacement of oil in the transport sector, without understanding the true cost of electrification.
So the race is on to reduce the CO2 -intensity of liquid fuels on a wells-to-wheels basis. 
We can make room for oil in transport through a combination of biofuels, lighter-weight vehicles, more efficient engines, and, in the longer term, by adding CCS to liquid hydrocarbon fuel production. 
If we can make progress in these areas, liquid fuels will be able to compete with vehicle electrification on environmental grounds for decades, not to mention cost and convenience.
If producer nations agree they have an interest in making room for oil in transport, they should actively support CO2 Cap and Trade mechanisms, CO2 Capture and Storage and biofuels.

Shell’s contribution 
The 3 Hard Truths force all of us to make choices.  We explained Shell’s choices at our strategy update on 17 March. 
That’s where we announced we would give priority to biofuels over wind and solar in our efforts to build a commercially attractive renewables business.
We were criticised for that decision by some environmental groups and commentators. 
So let me try to explain the rationale behind our continued focus on oil and natural gas, and our position on alternative energy. 
We recognise of course that a much higher share of the world's energy must in the future come from non-hydrocarbon fuels. 
But our scenarios work makes it clear that oil and gas will continue to be the world’s primary source of energy for decades to come. 
Clearly we must produce, process and distribute oil and gas in a responsible manner. 
I think it’s fair to say that Shell has high standards and a lot of experience operating in sensitive areas. The Sakhalin II project in Russia is a good example. 
In Sakhalin, we re-routed offshore pipelines to protect sensitive whale feeding grounds. And when we laid onshore pipelines, crossing a thousand rivers and streams in the process, we took great care to protect sensitive salmon spawning areas, sometimes tunnelling under streambeds or performing work in the cold of winter, when crews would have less impact. 
We’re also redoubling energy efficiency efforts at our refineries, chemical plants and production facilities. 
And we’re helping consumers with energy-saving products and tips. 
For instance, in a recent Fuel Save Challenge in the Philippines, drivers reduced fuel consumption by as much as 24%, just by changing their driving habits. 
And in the Netherlands, we have just introduced Fuel Save, a new Euro 95 petrol, that saves up to a litre per tank, (based on a 50-litre fill-up.) In the Netherlands, one litre per tank adds up to around 110 million litres of petrol saved each year. 
Finally, Shell is continuing efforts to increase production of natural gas. We think long-term demand for natural gas will grow, in part because it is the cleanest-burning fossil fuel. 
We are the world’s leading LNG producer and have projects underway that we expect will increase our capacity by about 40% between 2008 and 2011.
Indeed, we are increasingly becoming a gas company. In 2008, about 45% of our upstream production was natural gas. And that proportion is likely to rise in the years ahead.

Alternative energy 
Now let me say something about alternative energy.
We have looked very seriously at wind, solar, biofuels, hydrogen and CO2  capture and storage. Today, the largest of these activities is in Wind and we have 550 MW of capacity. 
We will now focus on operating our existing wind farms with increasing reliability and safety, and generally speaking, we’re doing a good job.
As regards solar, we sold our conventional Silicon solar business several years ago. However, we have a stake in a 20 MW solar thin-film manufacturing company in Germany. And our company in Japan, Showa Shell, is a player in solar.
We think hydrogen is still an interesting option, but for the very long term.

Biofuels 
For the next few years, Shell will focus on biofuels. Why is that?
First of all, sustainably sourced biofuels could make a substantial contribution to reducing CO2  emissions.
Second, they are a natural fit with our downstream capabilities in transport fuels.
We believe biofuels could grow from just 1% of the world’s transport fuel mix today to as much as 7–10% over the next few decades.
We are the largest distributor of first generation biofuels: 6 billion litres distributed in 2008. 
So we can bring our weight and influence to implement sustainable practices and grow a sustainable biofuel supply chain. If sellers want to supply Shell, they must commit to working with us to develop a more sustainable supply chain.
We will track their performance against the social and environmental safeguards we’re writing into their contracts.
We also have a leading portfolio of next generation biofuels. This portfolio is comprised of research positions in conversion technologies and feedstocks, for example algae, and  small-scale projects in production of these advanced biofuels with even more attractive lifecycle CO2 profiles.
We think commercial volumes of next-generation biofuels could be on the market in five to 10 years. To get there, we are investing in partnerships targeted at technical breakthroughs and cost-reducing innovations.
So in the area of alternative energy, Shell will focus on fuel from biomass, because we are good at it, and we think it has a lot of potential to address CO2  emissions from energy.

CO2 Capture and Storage 
At the same time, we will also continue to be active in CO2  capture and storage.
We have made progress with several potential projects including in Canada, where we are taking part in the Weyburn-Midale CO2  monitoring and storage project; and in Germany where the first injection of CO2  was carried out in June 2008 at the CO2 SINK project - the first European scientific project to demonstrate onshore CO2 storage in a saline aquifer. 
Shell is also a partner in the Gorgon LNG project in Australia; should this project be approved by the government and JV partners, it could also become one of the world's largest CCS endeavours.

NOC-IOC partnerships 
This brings me to my next theme: value-driven partnerships between National Oil Companies (NOCs) and International Oil Companies (IOCs). 
As long as hydrocarbons are needed to meet the world’s energy needs, we will need to extract them effectively, efficiently, and responsibly, using all the skills and capabilities of all industry players.
By combining the best of our technologies and skills, the oil and gas industry can achieve a higher production peak in the future, and push the peak back by years or decades.
Enduring, value-driven partnerships between NOCs and IOCs can help us to generate more economic value over the long term for both parties, while sharing risks and rewards fairly, including when the going gets tough.
We all have our value propositions. As regards Shell, I think it’s fair to say that we bring to the table: technology, global learning, global contract leverage, experience in developing deep local supply chain capacity and in developing national staff.
In addition, Shell is a company that “stays and delivers”. Let me give you a few examples. 
In Russia, when the going got tough over Sakhalin II, we found a mutually acceptable solution, moved forward and completed the project – embracing Gazprom as a proud partner for the long-term. Now it’s on stream, producing oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).
In Nigeria, despite the difficulties, we stay and continue to deliver energy supplies. We continue to invest in new projects, local communities and building local skills and supply chains. And we found ways to use our financial strength to support funding in our upstream joint venture.
And of course we have been in countries like Oman, Brunei, Malaysia and the Emirates for many decades, working together to provide value to the nation. And becoming partners of choice for the long term.
Saudi-Aramco and Shell jointly own petrol stations in the United States, and are currently expanding the huge Port Arthur refinery there. We are also partners with shareholdings in Showa Shell in Japan. 
In Qatar, the Pearl GTL project will supply customers across the globe with remarkably high-quality liquid products. Pearl will diversify Qatar’s market for natural gas from LNG and bring benefits for generations to come.
Also, we are drilling in Libya now, and working to upgrade an LNG plant there.
What all these partnerships have in common is a willingness to share risks and rewards fairly, and to stick together in good and bad times. 
So enduring, value-driven partnerships contribute to sustainable development and growth, and create a true sense of stability in ‘good times and in bad’.

Summary 
Let me summarise my main points:
In light of the world’s growing long-term demand for energy, the world will need to produce “diverse energy” from all possible sources. 
Hydrocarbons will remain a key component in the world’s energy mix.
At the same time, concern over greenhouse gas emissions is growing.
Against this backdrop, the oil and gas industry is in a race to reduce the CO2  wells-to-wheels intensity of oil.
Progress in this area is important in order to make room for liquid fuels in the transport sector. 
Producer governments could help by promoting CO2  cap-and-trade mechanisms, CO2 capture and storage, and biofuels.

Royal Dutch Shell remains an oil and gas company with a growing interest in natural gas and biofuels. We will continue to pursue CCS projects that help reduce the CO2 -intensity of fossil fuels.   
And Shell remains interested in enduring, value-driven partnerships with NOCs as a way of:

mobilizing the industry’s full set of skills and capabilities;
distributing risks and rewards fairly across the globe;
promoting the most efficient, effective and responsible management of the world’s hydrocarbon resource base;
and thereby extending the economic life of what are ultimately finite resources by years and decades.

7. 怎样建立财务风险预警系统

　　一、财务预警系统功能及构建原则
　　(一)财务预警系统的功能
　　财务预警系统可对企业运营管理活动中的潜在风险进行实时监控,并向经营者预先示警,包括财务预警咨询系统、财务预警决策系统、财务预警执行系统、财务预警监督系统四个子系统。财务预警系统的功能包括:。
　　(1)预警功能
　　当有可能危害企业财务状况的关键因素出现时,财务预警系统能够预先发出警告,提醒企业经营者预先采取措施减少财务损失。
　　(2)矫正功能。预防或控制危机的发生、恶化。当有财务危机征兆出现时,预警系统不仅能预知、预告,还能及时寻找导致财务状况恶化的原因,并通过制定有效的措施,阻止财务状况进一步恶化,避免发生严重的财务危机。
　　(3)免疫功能。避免发生类似的财务危机,通过对企业财务危机的监测、控制和处理,系统的数据库中储存有类似财务危机的发生、恶化、改善的全过程,当再次发生类似财务危机的征兆时,经营者可以利用财务预警系统历史数据做出相应的决策,完善管理。
　　(二)财务预警系统构建原则
　　构建企业财务预警系统时应遵循以下原则:
　　(1)科学性原则。财务危机预警的方法和指标必须科学。方法科学是前提,指标科学是指标设计的科学性,财务预警指标应能准确反映各组相关财务数据的内在联系,揭示财务运行规律,如实反映企业经营管理和财务活动的潜在危机。
　　(2)系统性原则。财务危机预警系统将企业作为一个整体来考虑,财务危机预警不仅要求指标具有先进性,而且要求对象必须具有完整性和全面性,对每类危机的各个因素都予以充分考虑,做到指标不重复、不遗漏,使指标体系能够全面、真实地反映危机程度。
　　(3)预测性原则。财务预警系统必须具有预测未来的功能,即应能依据企业经营活动中的历史数据资料分析预测企业未来可能发生的情况,而不是对企业过去的经营成果和受托管理责任的履行情况做出考核评价。所以,企业在设计财务预警指标时必须注意财务危机预警系统与财务评价系统的区别,并通过对潜在危机的监测,帮助企业采取有效措施加以防范。
　　(4)动态性原则。企业陷入财务危机是一个逐步的过程,通常是从财务正常发展到财务出现危机。因此,对企业财务危机的预警必须将企业的经营活动视为一个动态的过程,在分析企业过去经营状况的基础上,把握企业未来的发展趋势。动态分析预警还可以反映企业经营者对危机的态度和防范危机的能力,从预警时间跨度上看,预警的时间越长,越能反映企业经营者的经营管理水平。动态性还体现在财务危机预警系统可根据市场经济的发展、企业危机的变化而不断修正、补充预警的内容,确保预警系统的先进性。
　　(5)直观实用原则。预警是一种预报,即企业在经营情况及财务状况出现恶化或发生险情之前,能够及时地发出警报。直观性要求企业的财务危机预警系统应非常直观地反映企业经营活动的潜在风险,让使用者容易理解和把握。
　　构建财务预警系统的关键在于选择合适的财务预警指标。预警指标选择得好,预警系统就能真正起到预知危机、控制危机的作用;预警指标选得不好,财务预警系统形同虚设,起不到应有的作用。
　　二、财务预警系统的建立方式
　　财务预警系统建立的关键是如何确定预警的指标和判断预警的警戒线。建立的方式有以下两种思路:
　　1．单一模式思路。单一模式是通过单个财务比率的恶化程度来预测财务风险。可设立以下比率：
　　债务保障率=现金流量÷债务总额
　　资产收益率=净收益÷资产总额
　　资产负债率=负债总额]]÷资产总额
　　资金安全率=资产变现率-资产负债率(其中：资产变现率=资产变现金额÷资产账面金额)
　　企业良好的现金流量、净收益和债务状况可以表现出企业长期的、稳定的发展态势，所以跟踪考察时，应对上述比率的变化趋势予以特别注意。当这些指标达到经营者设立的警戒值，预警系统便发出警示，提请经营者注意。企业的风险是各项目风险的整合，不同比率的变化趋势必然表示出企业风险的趋势，但单一模式没有区别不同比率因素对整体的作用，也不能很好地反映企业各比率正反交替变化的情况。一个比率变好，另一个比率变坏，便很难做出准确的预警。
　　2．综合模式思路。综合模式思路是运用多种财务指标加权汇总产生的总判别值来预测财务风险，即建立一个多元线型函数模型，来综合反映企业风险。
　　Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 + X5
　　其中：Z—判别函数值；Xl—营运资金/资产总额；X2—留存收益/资产总额；X3—息税前利润/资产总额；X4—普通股和优先股市场价值总额/负债账面价值总额；X5—销售收入/资产总额。
　　该模型是以5个财务比率，将反映企业偿债能力的指标(X1,X4)获利能力指标(X2,X3)和营运能力指标(X5)有机联系起来，综合公析、预测企业风险。一般认为7值大于2.675时，表明企业财务状况良好；当Z小于1.81时，表明企业财务状况堪优；在2.675和1.81之间，说明企业财务状况不稳定。
　　综合模式认为，企业是一个综合体，各个财务指标之间存在某种相互联系，对企业整体的风险影响作用也是不一样的。这种模式给企业一个定量的标准，从总体角度检查企业财务状况，有利于不同时期财务状况的比较。但由于企业规模、行业、地域等诸多差异，使得Z值不具有横向可比性。
　　三、建立财务预警系统应做的工作
　　1．加强信息管理。财务预谱系统必须以大量的信息为基础，这就要求强有力的信息管理向预警系统提供全面的、准确的、及时的信息。耍建立信息管理组织机构，配备必要的专业人员，要明确信息收集、处理、贮存到反馈各环节的工作内容和要求以及信息专业人员的职责，提供必要的技术支持。
　　2．协调好各子系统之间的关系。企业是一个有机的整体，财务预警系统应该与其他子系统保持和谐的合作关系。应当考虑不同子系统的数据传递和各个子系统对各种数据的不同要求，实现企业数据共享，使各子系统之间的关系变得更加和谐。
　　3．完善内部控制制度。财务预警系统向内部控制制度提出了更高的要求。良好的内部控制制度应该包括法人治理结构完善、组织建设权责分明、交易处理程序适当、信息记录真实、披露及时等内容。
　　四、财务预警系统具有以下功能：
　　①信息收集。它通过收集与企业经营相关的产业政策、市场竞争状况、企业本身的各类财务和生产经营状况信息，进行分析比较，判断是否预警。
　　②预知危机。经过对大量信息的分析，当出现可能危害企业财务状况的关键因素时，财务预警系统能预先发出警告，提醒经营者早作准备或采取对策，避免潜在的风险演变成现实的损失，起到末雨绸缪、防患于未然的作用。
　　③控制危机。当财务发生潜在的危机时，财务预警系统还能及时寻找导致财务状况恶化的根源，使经营者有的放矢，对症下药，制定有效的措施，阻止财务状况的进一步恶化。
　　五、财务危机预警指标必须同时具备三个基本的特征：
　　（1）必须具有高度的敏感性，即危机因素一旦萌生，能够在指标值上迅速反映出来；
　　（2）一旦指标值趋于恶化，往往意味着危机可能发生或将要发生，亦即应当属于危机初步产生时的先兆性指标，而非业已陷入严重危机状态时的结果性指标。
　　（3）就财务层面上看，诱发财务危机最为直接的原因，或是由于资源配置缺乏效率，或是由于对竞争应对不当及功能乏力，由此而导致了企业集团竞争的劣势地位，未来现金流入能力低下；或是企业集团一味地追求销售数额的增长，却忽略了对销售质量----现金流入的有效支持程度及其稳定可靠性与时间分布结构等的关注，由此导致企业集团陷入了过度经营状态与现金支付能力匮乏的困境。这就要求企业集团的财务危机预警指标应当依托这一基点加以把握。

　　扩展阅读
　　建立财务风险预警系统，要确立财务分析指标体系，建立长期财务预警系统在建立短期财务预警系统的同时，企业还要建立长期财务预警系统。其中，获利能力、偿债能力、经济效率、发展潜力指标最具代表性。获利是企业经营的最终目标，也是企业生存与发展的前提。从长远看，一个企业能够远离财务危机，必须具备良好的盈利能力，由此，企业对外筹资能力和清偿债务能力才会越强。
　　企业能否维持下去，并不完全取决于是否盈利，而取决于是否有足够现金用于各种支出。预警的前提是企业有利润。对于经营稳定的企业，由于其应收、应付账款及存货等一般保持稳定，因此经营活动产生的现金流量净额一般大于净利润。企业现金流量预算的编制，是财务管理工作中特别重要的一环，准确的现金流量预算，可为企业提供预警信号，使经营者能及早采取措施。为此，企业应将各具体目标加以汇总，并将预期未来收益、现金流量、财务状况及投资计划等，以数量化形式加以表达，建立全面预算，预测未来现金收支的状况，以周、月、季、半年及一年为期，建立滚动式现金流量预算。
　　结合实际采取适当的风险策略在建立风险预警指标体系后，企业对于风险信号监测，如出现产品积压、质量下降、应收账款增多、成本上升等，要根据其形成原因及过程，指定切实可行的风险管理策略。面临财务风险，通常应采用回避风险、控制风险、接受风险和分散风险策略。其中，控制风险策略可进一步分类：按控制目的分为预防性和抑制性控制，前者指预先确定可能发生损失，提出相应措施，防止损失的实际发生。后者是对可能发生的损失采取措施，尽量降低损失程度。

8. 论文的摘要需要翻译一篇英文的，是关于企业财务危机预警体系的

　　风险无时不有，无处不在。企业往往会面临各种各样的财务风险， 复杂多变的市场环境和内部经营的不可控制因素决定了风险的客观存在。如果企业不能成功地规避风险，危机便会在企业内部机体滋生蔓延。当各种不可预见风险发生后，首当其冲的是企业资金运动的中枢--财务系统，财务状况的逐步恶化将引发财务危机，而当危机扩散到企业无法承受的限度时，全面危机则一触即发，因此进行财务风险管理至关重要。企业若能建立良好的风险监控和预警指标系统，预先诊断出危机信号，并积极采取相宜的有效措施，便能将危机消灭于萌芽阶段。�
　　财务危机是指由财务状况的不断恶化而产生的，即将危及企业生存的一种状态。任何一个企业的财务危机都有一个逐步显现，不断恶化的过程。财务管理者应当对企业的财务运营过程进行跟踪、监控，建立财务危机的警报系统，及早发现财务危机，预防或避免可能发生的失败。�

　　�
　　它是指运用单一财务比率的走势来预测企业可能出现的财务危机状况。当企业模型中所涉及的几个财务比率趋势恶化时，通常是财务危机发生的先兆。潜在危机的根源，即管理绩效的优劣最终体现在财务成果上；而财务成果生成过程的质量或可靠性又直接影响着危机的表现形式和经济后果；财务成果运行过程的持续性保障主要体现为营运效率。因而，可以通过潜在危机的直接表现信号即现金流的匾乏、过程信号即盈利能力的衰减和最终表现信号即企业经营效率的低下三个方面进行具体指标的设置。�
　　� 企业在选择理财方案时，应综合评价各种方案可能产生的财务风险，在保证财务管理目标实现的前提下，选择风险较小的方案，以达到回避财务风险的目的。
　　企业面对客观存在的财务风险，努力采取措施降低财务风险的方法。降低风险法可以采取三种策略：一是通过支付一定的代价，减少风险损失出现的可能性，降低损失程度。
　　对于风险投资方案，企业可以与其他企业共同经营、共同出资、收益共享、风险共担，这样就将应由本企业独家承担的风险，改为由联营企业之间共同承担。
　　事实上、任何危机预警模型都只能为分析人员提供关于企业财务危机发生可能性的线索，而并不能确切地告知是否会发生财务危机，它并不能替代经营者解决。无疑它更需要分析者对企业财务状况具有敏锐的洞察力，包括对整个宏观走势的判断和把握。企业应根据本身的行业或产业特质，直接或间接、简单或综合地运用各项指标，并借助专业人员、咨询公司等对企业行业地位、前景分析的判断，在长期的实践中构造适合的预测模式和寻找化解危机的方法。�
　　希望对楼主有帮助!